TimmyHA Winning Web Formula
December 4th 2008 10:45
Advertisers could benefit from analyzing the early popularity of online content.
As online advertising money starts shrinking in the economic downturn, some researchers are looking for ways to make the most of every single dollar. Recent research from HP Labs in Palo Alto, CA, shows that it's possible to predict, with reasonable accuracy, how popular an online video clip or news story will become simply by looking at how well it does within the first few hours of being posted. If content providers can predict how many views a video or article will get over a set period, then they can match the most popular items with specific high-dollar ads. Additionally, content providers can place potentially popular content in eye-catching spots on their site, further increasing the number of people who see it and the accompanying ads.
"There's an obvious byproduct of what we're doing here for advertising," says Bernardo Huberman, a senior fellow at HP who led the work. "This will allow people who advertise to at least start getting a sense of what they want [...] if very early on you can tell if people will like a video or news story."
Huberman and his colleagues looked at historical data gathered from the video site YouTube, and from Digg, a news aggregator that lets readers' votes determine which stories become most prominent. The researchers applied mathematical models to these data sets, determining a "popularity curve" for different items. These curves allowed the researchers to extrapolate the future popularity of an item using only information about its popularity over the first few hours or days.
By Kate Greene
Really Long Link
As online advertising money starts shrinking in the economic downturn, some researchers are looking for ways to make the most of every single dollar. Recent research from HP Labs in Palo Alto, CA, shows that it's possible to predict, with reasonable accuracy, how popular an online video clip or news story will become simply by looking at how well it does within the first few hours of being posted. If content providers can predict how many views a video or article will get over a set period, then they can match the most popular items with specific high-dollar ads. Additionally, content providers can place potentially popular content in eye-catching spots on their site, further increasing the number of people who see it and the accompanying ads.
Online Advertising
"There's an obvious byproduct of what we're doing here for advertising," says Bernardo Huberman, a senior fellow at HP who led the work. "This will allow people who advertise to at least start getting a sense of what they want [...] if very early on you can tell if people will like a video or news story."
Huberman and his colleagues looked at historical data gathered from the video site YouTube, and from Digg, a news aggregator that lets readers' votes determine which stories become most prominent. The researchers applied mathematical models to these data sets, determining a "popularity curve" for different items. These curves allowed the researchers to extrapolate the future popularity of an item using only information about its popularity over the first few hours or days.
By Kate Greene
Really Long Link
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